Extreme Value Analysis
The gathering of information, news articals and reports to assist in planning.
“Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) is simply a method of estimating the probability of a rare event. It is perhaps best known for its application in meteorology where it is used to predict the likelihood of extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain maximum frost penetration or extreme wind conditions. The method is also used in engineering to predict the possible failure rate of a mechanical system. A wider application to crowd safety planning was used by Brian Toft (1990) in his thesis, A failure of hindsight, to support his argument that crowd related accidents should not be treated as unavoidable acts of god but more likely a failure of risk analysis.”