Trying to run before we can walk, from vaccination to live events.
Long-time no blog. What can we say, there has not been a lot to speak about over the past year. Pandemics, they put a crease in discussing live events. With that though or minds turn occasionally to those days where we are all back doing what we love doing in crowded places and people enjoying life.
Over the past few weeks we have been watching with fascination and some frustration at the vaccination process and roll out. Fascination on how people are reacting and the way it is being done, frustration that it is not a 24/7 operation in most places (mostly speaking about the UK here). The most important thing to happen this year and although it is moving along, we cannot think that this could be faster if operated around the clock. This then brings a consideration with it and the return of live events, namely the pace of vaccination.
Firstly, we have to understand the timeline behind the vaccination, as a lot of folks out there are not paying attention.
1 – First vaccination
2 – 12 week wait (3 Months)
3 – Second vaccination
4 – ??? Weeks wait time shot two settles (so let’s say another 12 weeks.)
This is a 6 month timeline. 6 months………..has this sunk in with many people?
Let’s have some examples of how this may play out in the coming weeks.
Hospitality is screaming out to re-open
With pubs, clubs, restaurants all closed, they are screaming for their livelihood to be reopened. And so they should, they are not being supported in the way they need to survive this forced closure.
The spring and summer months are coming, nice weather, people want to escape the house. Lockdowns are far easier when it is miserable outside. So the governments jump early and reopen the hospitality sector. The average 18 – 30 year old in the UK is not going to see vaccination 1 till at least August. They are the stable life line to the hospitality industry, the ones that keep going out every weekend and will pop out for a pint or a burger mid-week. As soon as you have a family, that gets less and less.
Are we going to ignore the reports of the impact of the “eat out to help out” campaign had on London? A capital city that pushed this message and many desperate businesses put little or no measures in place to stop the spread.
But those on vaccine 1 are maybe thinking, “I have had my first shot, I am safer, I can go out and about”. They may not think that it might not get them, but they may be a carrier and pass it on to those not vaccinated.
By vaccination 2, 3 months have passed, we are I mid-summer and they could murder a pint and Scotch Egg (other food types are available). But nothing has changed from shot 1, they can still be a carrier. But what may have changed is the mind set….”I am fully vaccinated, I want my life back, I do not want to wait 9 – 12 months till everyone catches up with me. “
We want to go to a festival!
Summer is fast approaching, tickets have been held over from last year, the want to run about a sun drenched field with your friends; YES, we are painting that slow motion after reel YouTube video, the thought that the field will be muddy and it will rain all weekend is not even a thought at the moment.
The news articles on rapid test kits to help get attendees tested before the event are now becoming more common. We watch this with interest and especially the test events. But are we truly going to believe that your average teen that wants to get roaring drunk and experiment with god knows what type of drug, is going to be fully compliant with these tests. Or are we grasping at straws and looking for the ideal solution whilst ignoring reality.
We agree as the year goes on festivals become safer, and smaller festivals are more controllable, but large festivals would require monumental management and control that will possibly put them into the economically unviable pot – I am sure if you asked the cost of test events in sports, the price tag would quickly show the reality of the cost.
The impatience of youth
We are already seeing the rise of the illegal rave, nightclubs and underground pubs. The want to socialise and maybe a bit of rebellion against the rules is pushing this, based on the misinformation that younger people will not suffer from COVID. Ignoring that this is incorrect and that they can still be a carrier if not a sufferer.
Incidents of police raids, locked doors and fire exits, escaping fines over roofs are appearing weekly now. How long until it goes wrong and lives are lost.
The tipping point.
We know we are nowhere near the stage of discussing the reopening of live events. Well we are saying that, we know many will argue the point. We all have our own opinions.
What interests us is the point of re-opening, when is that. At what point do the medical leaders consider there to be enough people in the country vaccinated to allow live event attendance to resume without the risk of crippling the health system.
As with many things, communication and information is vital. Arm the nation with the correct information, set out the goal posts and be honest. This would be a welcome change and allow people to plan for the year ahead.
We watch and wait, just like the rest of the world.
WorkingWithCrowds 20th Feb 2021